Overall, climate change does not automatically cause violent conflict. However, there is no doubt that climate change acts as a threat multiplier, indirectly escalating the risk of conflict. In concrete, there is evidence that changing and severe weather patterns multiply the threat of conflict as the interruption of resource supply leads to greater resource scarcity. Furthermore, increased natural disaster risks may also trigger population displacement. Climate change is not a singular driver of conflict but a stressor that may lead to heightened risk of violence and conflict in an already fragile setting. Contexts with weak institutions, high levels of poverty and agricultural-based economies are particularly vulnerable to these conflict threat multipliers, and are at an increased risk of falling into the climate-conflict nexus.
The linkages between environment, fragility and conflict are being addressed in a number of Swiss interventions. Sound conflict analysis aims to guide SDC’s contribution to the reduction of conflicts around natural resources. Common natural resource management can increase confidence across borders, prevent conflicts and promote peace. Development cooperation should support such efforts through addressing the root causes of conflicts. For example, with the Blue Peace project, SDC contributes to building the foundations for the future cooperative management of the Orontes basin’s water resources at local, national and transboundary level. The project is based on the assumption that if water can contribute to conflict, for instance in Syria, it can also be a source of reconciliation and that concerted water management can contribute to peacebuilding.
SDS’s Climate Change & Environment Network together with the Conflict and Human Rights Network developed a “nexus brief” to sheds light on the nexus environment, climate change, fragility and conflict. This brief provides an overview on the various complex interlinkages that exist, with a focus on conflicts because of declining natural resources.
