A new tool from the Water, Peace and Security (WPS) partnership can predict the risk of violent water-related conflict up to 12 months in advance.

The WPS Global Early Warning Tool uses machine learning, coupled with environmental, meteorological, social and economic data to forecast where organised violence is likely to occur. It will enable global development, diplomacy, disaster response and defence experts – together with governments and communities – to intervene and help defuse conflicts before blood is shed.

The tool will identify potential hotspots across Africa, the Middle East, and South and Southeast Asia over the next 12 months, by comparing environmental data with socio-economic and demographic data, including population density and past conflicts, from the past 20 years.

Right now, the tool shows that about 2,000 administrative districts across the Global South are at risk of water-related conflict, including Iraq (Basra), Khorramshahr and Abadan (Iran), and parts of Mali, Nigeria, India and Pakistan.

One in four people globally live in extremely water-stressed areas. While action on water issues can help build peace, water risks like drought, scarcity, pollution and floods can also serve as ‘threat multipliers’ that help trigger conflict or contribute to famine, loss of livelihoods or displacement.

The WPS consortium will use data from the tool to spur political action on water-related conflict, and to guide peacebuilding interventions.